Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
