Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
